The Logic of Failure

Why Things Go Wrong
and What We Can Do
to Make Them Right

By Dietrich Dorner
Metropolitan Books, $25

ISBN 0805041605

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Manager's bookshelf: brace yourself

Review by Michael Pellecchia

Innovation and flexibility get pretty high marks among managers and other problem-solvers these days. But how important are they really? This is one of many questions asked and answered creatively in the computer simulation work of Dietrich Dorner. This 1989 German book is now out in English translation, and not a minute too soon. It is a brilliant examination of systems thinking in the context of everyday decisions.

Human thinking and behavior has not kept up with the increased complexity of modern-day systems, the author maintains, and he proves this notion quite well.

Success under such complex conditions as a nuclear plant or an ecological biosystem can be very demanding. Complexity is subjective. Someone just learning to drive a car is dealing with many more complex factors than an experienced driver, who has folded most of the likely traffic experiences into the face of familiarity. Many people are not equipped to see where a whole system is headed over time, and so are content to grasp situations at given moments. And then there are the things we can't see, the information that's only partially available. This is just the beginning of an explanation for the causes of failure in today's complex environments.

Dorner's conclusions come from years of scientifically analyzing both real and simulated complex scenarios. He has clearly and forcefully catalogued what can be learned from this research. This is perhaps the one book all business managers should read this year.

Michael Pellecchia writes about business and finance books each month He can be reached at michael_pellecchia@bookpage.com.

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